My heart sank when I read “ISLAMABAD: A wave of suicide bombings, coordinated grenade, bomb and gun assaults, and drive-by shootings blamed on militants has left more than 190 people dead in Pakistan so far this month.“ on Dawn. Is this the same Pakistan that some Western countries accuse of ‘not doing enough’ in the fight against terror? Yes, it is nauseating, but Pakistan has been accused of ’secretly’ working with the Taliban for reasons still unknown.
Unfortunately, so far, no one has come forward to accept his/her mistake about being wrong about Pakistan’s sincerity in the fight against the Taliban. Worse, the support that is being offered is still measured and cautious with room for later criticism, if necessary.
This is not right and this is not fair.
It is worth repeating, yet again, that Pakistan has paid the ultimate price for a war that Pakistanis neither wanted, nor was it started by Pakistan. Therefore, decency dictates that every nation and every country that is a target for the Taliban come forward to support Pakistan without ifs and but instead of repeating the same old tired line that ‘we are with Pakistan in this fight. In the words of an ordinary Pakistan’ “no, no, we don’t want you with us if you don’t give us the equipment and provide Islamabad with all the resources that are needed in this fight.” Rhetoric , not backed by concrete support is, well, useless to put it mildly.
Given the mood on the street in Pakistan, it is not difficult to understand that this might be the last time that Pakistan’s public would allow the country to become a battlefield for global conflicts. Also, this is pretty much the last chance for not only for Pakistan to survive as a country, but also for the Western democracies to respond properly to a situation that has the potential to get out of hand.
No question this fight in Pakistan is Pakistan’s fight, but it was not always like this. Pakistan sided with Western countries and in the process, it became Pakistan’s war. Now, Pakistan can’t go forward alone and it can’t go back to the time when Moscow decided to invade Afghanistan. Just like Pakistan took a stand at the time of Afghan invasion by the Russians, it is time for the West to take a stand, united stand against the Taliban and in support of Pakistan instead of critiquing Pakistan from the safety and comfort of their distant countries. Everyone has to participate and only than Pakistan will defeat the thugs, once and for all.
But, Pakistan can’t do it alone, and this crucial, but simple factor must not be forgotten.
Equally important is the need to not get dragged in Pakistan’s domestic politics, especially for Washington. For example, Richard Hoolbrooke regularly meets with Nawaz Sharif and after every meeting, Nawaz Sharif and his team claim that Richard Hoolbrooke was reminded that Pakistan is not ready to give up its independence and Washington must respect Islamabad. Similarly, couple of days after Kerry met Nawaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif declared that Kerry was unable to satisfy him. What? If you were not satisfied by Kerry’s explaining of Kerry Lugar or any other matters, why didn’t you tell us this at the time instead of hugs and kisses? Americans have to understand this difficult component of Pakistan’s impossible domestic politics when it comes to fighting the Taliban.
The current government has gambled everything by taking on the Taliban and now, there is no turning back. If Pakistan did not fully succeed in decisively crushing the Taliban, the threat to Pakistan would continue to resurface and it is not easy to launch massive operations like Wazirstan and Swat. World leaders should come forward to do their part in this fight against the Taliban. Remember, God forbid if Pakistan failed to defeat the Taliban, Washington, London, Paris, Tokyo and countless other countries would become the next target for the Taliban. Therefore, it is important to strengthen Pakistan, assist the current government, and not encourage pro Taliban leaders like Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan type characters by meeting with them.
Archives for October, 2009
Please, come forward and help
Every Crisis is an Opportunity
Speaking to my grandmother whose in Karachi yesterday morning, she explained my cousins stayed home from elementary school as most schools had shut down this week. Karachi is the the largest, most bustling city in Pakistan, and despite being situated in the south, far removed from the hotbed of militants in northern Waziristan, terrorism has gradually spilled over from Afghanistan, crept into Pakistan and paralyzed the country. My grandmother described a city laden with tension where people live in a constant climate of uncertainty and increasing fear.
It was pressing to hear her tired voice describe the situation with a kind of detachment. Her tone was passive: an indication of hopelessness. And that hopelessness is not in reference to obliterating terrorists, because there’s little speculation on a military capacity to wipe out at most, 10 thousand terrorists. Rather, her passive tone is a worn out sound echoing 62 years of statehood rooted in insecurity. She’s seen Pakistan through three wars fought with India, including a civil war in the 70’s resulting in a cession of East Pakistan, one of the worlds largest refugee problems in the 1980’s and now the War on Terror fought on home soil. Her passivity is an exhausted acceptance of perpetual political insecurity.
VIDEO: Terrorists Bomb an Islamic University in Pakistan
The aforementioned video shows a younger generation, not yet exhausted. They’re shocked, frustrated by what’s happening in their country as they passionately raise their voices in protest against extremist Islamic groups who oppress the country.
Most ironic is that extremist groups bombed the Islamic University in Islamabad where these young men study. Testimony to how grossly extremists propagate an inaccurate view of Islam that terrorizes Muslims everyday.
Reminding us how imperative it is that Pakistani and US forces focus on uprooting and not just obliterating terrorists. Pakistan is home to the worlds 6th largest population, and the second largest Muslim country. That’s a strategic demographic in the War on Terror and for future international security. Ensuring terrorism is uprooted in the long term will require a sustained, multifaceted, military and non military approach. Few will argue against the necessity of economic development, the question really is how to pay for it. I’ve mentioned before that the Kerry Lugar bill is a fair, but insufficient attempt at doing this, and ultimately, Pakistan itself must uproot terrorism.
This critical time is an opportunity for Pakistani politicians to take responsibility and bring forth a detailed agenda that rallies current masses. A specific, well publicized plan of action, accepting but not relying on outside assistance is Pakistan’s best hope at engaging its citizens to wipe out terrorism for the long haul. Hopelessness, frustration and desire for Pakistani’s to develop economically and free themselves from terror poses a widespread opportunity to supplement the military offensive with civil support. That support is the capital with which to begin an agenda to uproot terrorism.
Grassroots organizations, women’s and educational groups whose ideologies run counter to extremist groups should be actively highlighted by the media and politicians.
A more proactive approach that is clearly visible works on two levels. One, it aggregates support in the country against extremism setting a future stage for more moderate masses. Secondly, it alleviates international fears of Pakistan becoming a failed state. Because not only do citizens like my grandma need hope, but the international community also watches in concern for Pakistan to define itself in unity and diametrically against extremism.
Wazirstan Operation
Finally, the operation in Wazristan is under way, thank God. Pakistan is doing a good job of clearing every place that was a safe heaven for the nuts in and around Pakistan. Now, policy makers in Pakistan should not focus on achieving short term military objective. This war is not going to be easy and a lot of people believe that this is a generational issue as for as defeating the Taliban threat.
Obviously the military is going to easily defeat those who are going to take up arms against the army in Wazirstan, or at the very least, it is hoped that the army is going to defeat them. However, after the military moves out, how will the civilian population going to react to the future Talibans interested in making Wazirstan their home again? This is a very important question and I hope that the army and the civilian leadership in Pakistan have given it serious consideration. Remember, majority of the population not only in Wazristan or in Swat, but all across Pakistan is interested in living peacefully. And when thugs like the Taliban come, people try to not get into fights and quarrels with a group that is heavily armed and willing to brutally murder anyone who questions their legitimacy.
Second, this battle cannot be militarily if the population in Pakistan does not understand the overall danger that religious militancy poses to the country. Therefore, it is important that the Pakistanis are clear about the actual reasons that the army is battling the Taliban and every other force (internal or external) that tries to destroy Pakistan as a country.
Regretfully, there are voices, and these voices are loud, that is propagating that Pakistan is in turmoil because of some bizarre international conspiracy in the region. Pakistan has to aggressively counter this and other erroneous myths being pumped in Pakistan by those who are interested in turning back the clock and want to bring Taliban style government just like the Afghan model in Pakistan.
Given the recent attacks by the Taliban in Pakistan, it won’t be an exaggeration to suggest that the Taliban have become either desperate or terribly committed to bringing down Pakistan’s current set up. In fact, Taliban are convinced (based on their own claims) that they can take over the country if they keep up the pressure by non-stop attacks on Pakistan’s soil. But, it seems that the Pakistani society is not ready to accept the Taliban or their code of life as the norm in the country. As a result, the current battle will become extremely bloody and it has the potential to go on for a while, but, there is no doubt that in the end, Pakistan will overcome the thugs and nuts currently threatening Pakistan’s survival.
The current fight in Wazirstan should also remind Pakistanis about the dangers of not taking religious militias seriously, especially when these groups are in the process of formation. For example, if a group of people is saying, repeatedly, that they are interested in taking over the country, than it is the duty of everyone to pay attention. And if Pakistanis had been vigilant from the start, the country wouldn’t have to suffer as much as Pakistan is suffering today. But, it is never too late to do the right thing. Pakistan can, and Pakistan will win the current fight against the pathetic Taliban. But, never again should anything like this become an issue for Pakistan. The country must take steps, and by steps I mean everything that it takes to become safe and secure, period.
Shaukat Aziz on Security
I’m in Arlington Virginia this weekend attending the Organization of Pakistani Entrepreneurs, D.C. chapter’s annual conference. This year’s theme is “Thriving in A Challenging Economy” and of particular interest was this mornings keynote address by former Pakistani Prime Minster Shaukat Aziz. Although retired from both politics and an illustrious career in international finance, now focusing on non profit work, he shared insights on global affairs ranging from the financial meltdown, terrorism, economic development and challenges facing the Muslim world, ultimately tying it together to make a simple point: international economic development can yield international security.
Aziz attributes economic downturn to sheer “greed” and “arrogance” which resulted in gross regulatory failures and voids in leadership on Wall Street. Stressing consumer confidence and unemployment indexes as opposed to stock market increases as indicators of recovery, he further warned against decoupling emerging markets from states more hard hit by the crisis and marked terrorism of equal importance to the financial crisis. In doing so, he referred to “fault lines” in the international system fractured by terrorism, and called on Muslim IGO’s such as the Organization of Islamic Conference to do more in bridging interfaith dialogue.
It was timely advice since his address was preceded by America’s Ambassador to the Organization of Islamic Conference, Sada Cumber. Addressing a mostly Pakistani audience, he underscored the importance for diasporas to seek opportunities for interfaith dialogue so as to reclaim what has become an internationally inaccurate view of Islam. Proactively promoting interfaith harmony in addition to transcending party lines for non resident Pakistani’s was another prescription. He offered an example of Former President George Bush who when asked about his Clinton as his Democratic successor in the 1990’s explained he supported the American President, suggesting such bipartisan, unified support is what Pakistan requires politically.
But his most provocative insight came during Q&A session when someone asked about the IMF’s role on Kerry-Lugar legislationto Pakistan. Without delving specifically into IMF policies which disperse funds in a traunch system only as stringent conditions are met in entirety, Aziz succinctly explained that anytime a state accepts IMF funds, they compromise economic sovereignty. It was a powerful, provocative statement from a man whose experience in international finance runs deep. He went on to supplement the idea by describing achievements in maintaining Pakistan’s economic sovereignty during his political tenure when he rejected IMF funding.
Overall, Aziz was insightful, relevant, and quite entertaining. He always manages to capture audiences with sharp commentary that transcends generations and professions. After all, every time i’ve heard him speak has been at entrepreneurial conferences, and I’m far too nerdy to be an entrepreneur.
“Terrorism Anywhere, is Terrorism Everywhere”
With Democrats weary of our engagement in the Af-Pak region becoming a Vietnam-esque quagmire, Republican’s remain hesitant to cut and run but public support is dwindling at just 40% for what Obama once said was our “war of necessity”. Apparently the “necessity” of this war is now shifted to the Pakistan front. BBC has a brief, but powerful article on how critical this war is to Pakistan by documenting thoughts of everyday citizens on the military’s recent offensive against terrorists. The piece reveals young men and women resoundingly support militarily obliterating insurgents who have spilled over from Afghanistan. But what is most pressing is the human element the article brings as we learn the unity with which each citizen describes the “fear” and “stresses” that have crept into their daily lives. Terrorism has brought a dangerous anxiety to Pakistan that didn’t exist prior to 9/11.
I was in Karachi on 9/11 and stayed for a few weeks before coming back to California. I remember President Musharraff coining the notion “Pehla Pakistan” (Pakistan First) and explaining the country would support the United States in fighting terrorism in Afghanistan because that was the right thing to do for Pakistan. But mostly I recall feeling sad, gripped: I stayed up all night on 9/11 watching footage and listening to news, not completely understanding what was happening. I was deeply saddened, yet not immediately scared. Sadness resounded minus physical fear because I was immediately safe. Pakistan was for the most part safe from terrorist activity. The Daniel Pearl incident was frightening, but it was well known that Al Qaeda had no significant presence or intent to attack Pakistan. The BBC article today reveals a much different, severely deteriorated Pakistan.
News stories have kept me abreast of countless suicide attacks against civilians, but this particular article leaves me stunned. Again, I’m not immediately scared because I’m physically away from terrorists, but realizing that our efforts after 9/11 have not thwarted terrorists from attacking again is still saddening. Instead, terrorists continue to grip the daily lives of innocent civilians 8 years later. Secretary Clinton said “terrorism anywhere is terrorism everywhere” and that’s difficult to argue with today.
Looking beyond the fact that Pakistan is strategically poised to serve our geopolitical energy interests through Central Asia and is a good ally to have in the face of an ascending China, there’s a profound humanitarian reason to aid Pakistan in this situation.
Secretary Clinton’s remarks are reminiscent of her husbands policies. Former President Clinton’s doctrine can partially be defined as American intervention in even the most remote, far away regions for the sake of humanity which ultimately serves greater international interest (think American intervention in Bosnia). In a similar way, citizens living in constant fear beseeches us to address a perpetually devastated Afghanistan and an increasingly crippled Pakistan with a long term strategy of ensuring that terrorism is not just obliterated, but uprooted.
The difference between obliterating and uprooting terrorism is one of time. Obliterating a few thousand Taliban/Al Qaeda might be accomplished swiftly with a major Pakistan & US military offensive, through the heightened use of drones, and a stepped up counterinsurgency. But that runs a risk of tremendous collateral damage which can impoverish and ultimately isolate moderates against Pakistani and US forces. The situation is already being described as a “civil war” and a short term, merely military strategy runs the costly risk of hurting our long term plan of engaging Pakistan diplomatically (we have plans of creating massive embassies in the north). Uprooting terrorism on the other hand requires a longer term engagement because it involves ’winning hearts and minds“.
Winning hearts and minds can be achieved through sustainable economic development that tangibly alleviates pain for people in Afghanistan and Pakistan. An American hand in such development ultimately eliminates reasons for people to join terrorists who harbor anti-American ambitions.
The Kerry Lugar bill is a fair attempt at addressing this issue, but fails to realize that in Pakistan, the military has historically and relative to civilian governments, been fairly efficient at achieving development in tandem with security. So while Democrats and Republicans debate the time frame for our engagement in the Af-Pak war, I think Obama’s administration should begin a U.S. strategy from the premise of uprooting terrorism. It’s no longer just about retributive justice of ”smoking them out” as Former President Bush put it. This war is expanding internationally at the expense of innocent civilians who increasingly fear, rather than welcome American assistance . Our strategy should aim to remove terrorists for the long haul, ensuring allies like Pakistan are securely comprised of prosperous, welcoming citizens.
Kerry Lugar & Domestic Trouble in Pakistan
Like everyone else, I too was taken aback by the fierce opposition to the Kerry Lugar bill. Not sure what the fuss is about, I decided to read about it. So, I read everything that was available on-line about the bill. During my research, I realized that the government of Pakistan has nothing wrong. It is an aid bill, conceived and finalized by a foreign government to help Pakistan. And, there is nothing new in this bill that Pakistan has not seen or dealt with before.
In my quest to educate myself about Kerry Lugar, I decided to talk to couple of people in Washington and they all agreed that Pakistan has to be realistic about ground realities. For example, if foreign countries stopped giving aid and money to Pakistan, it would be impossible for Pakistan to survive couple of weeks. But, if you read or listen to folks in Pakistan, especially on TV, you’d think that the sky is falling, and it is partly because Zardari is the president and partly because of Kerry Lugar.
Funny, right? Of course not, it is a very serious matter and it could hurt the country badly.
But, let me help you understand two simple facts. One, Pakistan is a poor country that almost entirely relies on aid to survive. Let’s not pretend that Pakistan is somehow independent or economically self sufficient. Two, it is up to the donors to decide what conditions or strings to attach to their aid.
But, people in Pakistan have gone nuts in their attempts to demonize Kerry Lugar and by extension Zardari, plain and simple. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find anything in Kerry Lugar that suggests or recommends that Pakistan stop being an independent country. If looked objectively, this aid bill actually helps Pakistan become a stable and self sufficient country, provided everyone in the country commits to helping and saving Pakistan.
I am not sure if the recent wave of horrific attacks on Pakistan’s civilian and military establishment is enough to unite the country, but, Pakistanis must realize the actual threat is not Kerry Lugar aid bill. It is the danger of being destroyed by the nut jobs carrying out attacks inside Pakistan. Instead of focusing on Kerry Lugar, the country has to come up with strategies to beat back the hate mongers targeting Pakistan and Pakistan’s infrastructure.
In an ideal world, Mian Nawaz Sharif and other so called political leaders would back the government and the military to root out the terrorists, but Pakistan’s political leaders, especially those who are not in power are scoring political points. Yet, I know it is pathetic, but it is also true. (By the way, one day, Nawaz Sharif would suffer because of Ch. Nisar and other thugs in his party one day.)
The attacks in Lahore are another opportunity for every Pakistani to drop everything and get ready for the fight that is being forced on the country. Pakistan has to understand that unless Pakistan fights and defeats the Taliban and their wretched supporters inside Pakistan, the country would continue to be under attack, day after day, city after city, building, and bus/train station after train station. It is either let the Taliban destroy Pakistan, or unite to defend and save Pakistan to fight back.
Ac Churchill had said, it is time for Pakistan to declare that “whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender,” and this is the spirit that will not only help Pakistan achieve victory, but also secure Pakistan’s future. It is the responsibility of today’s Pakistan to hand over a secure, prosperous and healthy Pakistan to the next generation and Pakistanis are obligated to do everything to protect Pakistan.
There is no other way, but to fight for a better tomorrow, no other way, except to fight back.
When Martial Law = Democracy
What happens when a majority of one country’s citizens opt for martial law but the democratically elected government in power including judicial, executive and legislative branches are against a military takeover? It’s quite the political conundrum because either side offers legitimate democratic authority, but they’re diametrically opposed. A rational answer is to let the democratically elected government fulfill it’s term and allow citizens to elect politicians to office who will support martial law in the next term. That might work in a fully functional democracy backed by institutions that can uphold legitimacy and granted the state is sufficiently secure. However, in light of decreasing security, severe economic downturns and age old skepticism of U.S. actions in Pakistan, ever so gradually the country shifts it’s gaze toward the military.
Decreasing Security :: To offer partial explanation in a nutshell: Since 2001, terrorists fleeing Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, spilled over into Pakistan at the nebulous northern border areas which are historically autonomous from federal regulation. The fact that Pakistan already housed one of the worlds largest refugee populations allowed terrorist spillover access to a destitute population from which to exploit support. As a result, we now see unprecedented terrorism inPakistan where Al Qaeda and the Taliban had no significant presence prior to 9/11.
Skepticism of U.S.’s Role in Pakistan :: Since the inception of Pakistan in 1947, bilateral realations with the United States have been defined by cooperation wherein Pakistan served as a proxy for U.S. Containment throughout the Cold War (security pacts like SEATO, CENTCOM, then aiding our Afghan led defense against Soviet’s in the 1980’s). In exchange, Pakistan’s military with U.S. support, bolstered itself as the strongest, most efficient and stable institution in Pakistan. Some argue civilian governments and democratic institutions were thus never given an opportunity to compete with such a well funded, strongly backed military. And therein we find multifaceted dimensions that help explain controversy over current U.S. support of Pakistan. Former Pakistan to U.S. ambassador Maleeha Lodhi describes the Kerry Lugar bill:
“the offending part of the legislation sets up the country as hired help and puts the military in the dock, presumed guilty on many counts and having to prove its innocence to Washington”
Pakistan is “hired help”, that’s the crux of skepticism on the Kerry-Lugar bill. Concern is rooted in a long history of cooperation with the United States that some argue created a behemoth military institution costing them a fair chance at democracy. In attempt to address that very concern, the Kerry Lugar bill mentions no military aid in exchange for cooperation on the War on Terror, unlike previous assistance packages from the Cold War. Ironically, bleak affairs in Pakistan today which are partially a result of pervious cooperation, particularly during the Soviet Afhgan war, prompt arguments that the military is exactly what needs support right now. Thus, the Lugar Bill receives not only skepticism from Pakistan’s strongest institution, but increasingly the public.
Although Secretary Clinton and Senators Kerry and Lugar have made no indication of altering the bill, to avoid future skepticism and potential resentment of U.S. involvement in Pakistan it could be wise to make changes so as to not sideline the military at this critical period in our War on Terror. Unlike previous Republican presidencies, the Obama administration is committed to dealing with civilian governments in Pakistan. It’s a noble idea and even though i don’t suspect that as the military gains legitimacy the civilian government will collapse soon, we should think twice before riling such concern over a bill that has just a 5 year life span. Central and South Asia are critical regions for our interests and we may need to engage strategically positioned Pakistan in more years to come. So a backlash by the most powerful institution in that country is something we should anticipate, and work actively against.
Pakistan, Fight Back
Why is there so much commotion about the attack on the GHQ in Pakistan? Come on, please; did we not know that the Taliban are a threat to everything Pakistan?
Regretfully, there is still support for the Taliban in the country. I was watching Ijaz-Ul-Haq, son of Zia, one of the worst dictators in Pakistan’s history argue on TV that the government should not launch any offensive against the Taliban. Instead, he argued, shamelessly, that Pakistan should not fight America’s war. Before I get to Ijaz’s despicable argument, I must say a word about the role of media in Pakistan.
I don’t understand why is (electronic) media in Pakistan determined to support the Taliban? I mean, if the producers, or the anchors working for TV Channels in Pakistan don’t like the United States, fine, they are entitled to their opinion. But to deliberately destroy, or support those who are attacking Pakistan from within, just because America is engaged in battle with the Taliban or the followers of Osama is something that the country must not accept.
Make no mistake about it – this is not America’s war.
Specifically, the army must take notice of the hate that is being spewed on TV Channels in Pakistan instead of supporting Pak Army’s effort to defeat the Taliban and to save the country from falling into the hands of the Taliban.
It is Pakistan that is under attack and the country must not allow the Taliban or their supporters and apologists, especially in the media (electronic and Urdu press) to misguide Pakistanis by confusing the barbaric attacks on Pakistan as America’s war, please.
Imagine if India had attacked the GHQ. Would the country still argue that this is America’s war? What if India had launched a war against Pakistan Army in Swat and Waziristan? Would the country still demand that America leave Afghanistan instead of taking on the Indians? No of course not, the country would come together to fight and save itself from annihilation and that is exactly what is needed today. Pakistanis need to fight against the Taliban, just like they would fight against any other aggression against Pakistan.
Now, let me say a word about Ijaz, son of Zia, a brutal dictator and Asia’s first Taliban. Ijaz and other right wingers do have the right to present argue whatever they want. Even though, during Zia’s time, people were locked up for years just because they were reading (not saying anything, just reading, believe me, not making it up) a poster, or a book that advocated freedom of expression, democracy or religious tolerance.
Therefore, I understand Ijaz’s pain when he and the supporters of the Taliban see people unite against the Taliban or other hate mongers. I don’t take Ijaz, Imran Khan, and countless other nuts in Pakistan seriously and neither does the country. That is precisely why these people are not elected and they don’t represent anyone in Pakistan, or I should anyone significant. They do, however, have an audience that supports the Taliban and these people idealize the Taliban rule in Afghanistan as a role model. And the country must remain vigilant and not allow these misguided Pakistanis into believing that Pakistan would be just fine if only stops working with the United States.
Pakistan has been under attack for years now and like majority of the country, I too was not surprised by the attack on GHQ. What shocked me was the support for the Taliban that got free air time and a 24/7 available platform in the shape of electronic media in Pakistan. But, the time has really come for forces of tolerance to defeat the forces of evil. And I would argue that before crushing the Taliban, Pakistan Army and rest of the country must determine if it is acceptable for them to tolerate the hate and poisonous propaganda that is aired in Pakistan.
I am not suggesting any censorship, no. But, I am asking for a way to neutralize the hate mongers and the Taliban supporters before the country launches a decisive battle against the nihilists currently targeting civilians and armed forced in Pakistan.
Otherwise, the world would continue to see the United Nations, the Marriott, the GHQ and anything and everything bombed and attacked day after day. It is time for a decision – is Pakistan ready to give in and accept the Taliban, or the Pakistanis want to live freely. It is their choice. If Pakistan gave up the fight and tried to appease the Taliban by negotiating or signing a peace treaty, the country will still have a war. It just a matter of time
It think it is wise to remember that when Chamberlain came back to the United Kingdom after signing Munich pact with Hitler, Churchill predicated, accurately, that “You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war.”
Domestic Agenda: Battling Terrorism
Pakistani forces are in full offensive mode today, bombing northern areas of South Waziristan. Although planned months in advance, this comes immediately following a siege at military headquarters, and a number of suicide attacks for which Taliban have claimed responsibility. Simultaneously, the Kerry-Lugar Bill elicits concern that contingencies on funding potentially violate sovereignty, US controlled drone attacks continue and the economy has yet to pick up. Needless to say, the War on Terror have been tough times for Pakistan, and I hope the military succeeds in securing northern areas swiftly.
But an interesting perspective that is perhaps overshadowed by statistics, strategies, and tangible costs/benefits of our engagement in Operation Enduring Freedom, are the multifaceted issues of Pakistan’s agenda, which should describe handling security breaches at the forefront of their interests.
The Christian Science Monitor has a piece entitled “Pakistan Taliban Bombing Spree Could spur Backlash” reporting on today’s military offensive, but the thrust is that this weekends Taliban siege at military headquarters “spurs” Pakistani forces to fight harder, and stronger against the Taliban. By attributing an increased fight to the ”backlash” of this weekends attacks, the article rests on an implied assumption that Pakistan would otherwise have made suboptimal efforts at obliterating terrorists. At the end of the article an alternative view is offered by a security analyst at the INternational Institute for Strategic Studies in London explaining:
“I don’t think any serious military is baited in that way. It will certainly annoy the military intensely and strengthen resolve, but the South Waziristan operation – which will inevitably occur at some point – isn’t going to be accelerated just because of this.”
But this is an external analysts view and the article is preceded by a statement from a Pakistani professor:
“By launching these attacks on the very citadel and symbol of the Pakistani Army they have just crossed a red line, and there is no turning back as far as the Pakistani Army is concerned. I think they will be made to pay for it.”
Certainly, a brazen attack on military headquarters will rile a staunch response. But the articles title still suggests that the siege fuels a military offensive rather than an inherent interest in combatting terrorism.
This idea is an extension of what is now a widespread misperception that Pakistan is not entirely interested in combating terrorism, when on the contrary, this weeks offensive reaffirms Pakistan’s struggle for security. And I wonder if the skeptical lens with which reports question Pakistan’s effort stem from a stage set for discourse back in 2001 when former President George Bush decided countries were simply “either with us, or against us”.
The effectiveness of that strategy is debatable as 8 years later it doesn’t offer sufficient explanations for allies like Pakistan who work “with us”, yet face persistent accusations of not doing enough. Because this weekend’s siege on military headquarters indicates Pakistan’s inherent interest in uprooting terrorism, but without a comprehensive reading into the situation it’s easy to have only a “with or against us” understanding. The northern areas where Afghani militants have spilled over is an autonomous region, historically beyond the realm of federal authority. Yet its inhabitants share with greater Pakistan a similar culture, ascribe to the same religion (although interpretations vary), and even share a physical resemblance making it a very sensitive area where any state would use force only as a final resort. Militarily obliterating such an area is unpalatable to the general Pakistani public and therefore a difficult issue to navigate for policymakers. In addition, Pakistan’s forces are only 60+ years old and trained predominantly in conventional warfare to face a potential Indian threat.
Thus, there are extremely sensitive considerations and multiple dimensions in the Pakistani approach to dealing with terrorism that since 2001, is an increasingly domestic battle. Just militarily obliterating this kind of demographic is not only potentially destabilizing for Pakistan, but is impractical without additional funding, training, and intelligence sharing with our forces. So Pakistan’s cooperation with the United States is not a black or white, “with us or against us” situation. The Obama administration understands this as it applies General McChrystal’s recommendations to differentiate Taliban from Al Qaeda as targets in the War on Terror. Such practicality takes into considerations long term realities and sensitivities of the region as cooperation in our War on Terror looks increasingly domestic for Pakistan.
Enhanced Cooperation Meets Enhanced Concern
At the heels of Pakistan’s offensive against militants in South Waziristan, terrorists brazenly staged an attack on military headquarters this weekend. Commandos responded swiftly, taking out 9 of the militants, capturing their ring leader and freeing 39 hostages. Despite success in ending the siege, the incident demonstrates a worsening Af-Pak situation and beseeches a new strategy.
Our administrations new strategy is defined by an increase in troops to Afghanistan, focusing military efforts squarely on Al Qaeda (less focus on Taliban) and expanded funding to Pakistan by way of the Kerry Lugar bill. And while the troop surge and emphasis on Al Qaeda are debated at length in D.C., the Pakistani media is abuzz on the Kerry Lugar bill. There are calls by The Awami League Party (representing the NWFP regions & a predominantly Pashtun population) that the bill allow for an “uninterrupted flow of non military assistance” while other politicians vouch against the legislation altogether. Tehrik-e-Insaaf chairman Imran Khan said the bill “enslaves” Pakistan and can only benefit the top echelons of government referring to past corruption allegations on senior government officials. Similarly, pundits were all over Pakistani television in the past week, echoing concerns about corruption, lack of support to the military, too many strings attached to funding, and how the bill threatens sovereignty. This morning Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi flew to D.C. to discuss these concerns just as rumours that Pakistan’s Ambassador to the United States is losing his post becayse of not entirely positive comments regarding the Kerry-Lugar legislation. Suffice to say, the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act meant to extend a new strategic hand of cooperation to Islamabad is not off to the positive start intended.
In fact, Senator Kerry’s office directly responded to popular skepticism in a recent report.
- Addressing concerns that the bill would invade state soveriegnty: Senator Kerry explains the bill funds “schools, roads, energy infrastructure and medical clinics” and that “those seeking to undermine” US/Pakistan in that endeavor are doing so to “advance narrow partisan or institutional agendas“.
- Regarding the idea that the legislation comes with too many strings attached, Kerry emphasizes that the $7.5 billion annual pledge is for “unconditioned non military aid” and comes with “strict measures of financial accountability“ referring specifically to Executive Branch oversight on the use of these funds.
This is contentious to Pakistan because it’s maybe the first time external oversight is imposed on assistance from the United States. And while the bill does a great job of outlining funds for social infrastructure intended to find it’s way to everyday citizens, on the issue of sovereigty, the real sticking point is regarding a potential subversion of the Pakistani military. Senator Kerry insists that the bill’s:
- “focus is on nonmilitary assistance to the people of Pakistan“ and military aid is contingent to “cooperation on nonproliferation“. However, the bills funding is rooted in ”significant efforts towards combating terrorist groups” and the “Pakistani military not subverting the political or judicial process“ to ensure ”common goals“ of ”security and democracy“.
This irks Pakistani’s for a number of reasons. Firstly, there’s ambiguous wording. “Cooperation on nonproliferation” is vague enough to translate as potentially linking funds to Pakistan giving up their right to maintain armaments comparable to neighboring India. Similarly, “significant efforts toward combating terrorism” gives no reference for how this will be measured.
On the Pakistan side, the worry is that ”significant efforts”, according to their definition might not match a U.S. definition of success. Plus there might continue to be a disagreement on the idea of “combating terrorism”. It’s a contention we’ve seen play out as D.C. repeatedly called for heightened efforts on combating the Taliban, quitely but surely opposing Pakistan’s attempts at negotiating with those groups rather than employing just a military offensive, (a policy we’re now reverting).
Also, delinking assistance from the military is unprecedented and freightening to some because while it is necessary to develop schools, and social, democratic infrastructure for long term development, in the immediate term there are widespread security breaches with weekly suicide attacks, an ever growing incursion from Afghan militants on the northern border and drone attacks that result in collateral damage.
So Pakistans concerns echo a need for both immediate security and long term development, but not at the expense of one another.
Keep in mind, the widely held, and all but true notion that Pakistan is perhaps the only place where the military controls a country, and not vice versa. That idea is rooted in that their military is historically the strongest, most stable and legitimately accepted institution. Let me emphasize that last part: it’s historically the most legitimately accepted institution in Pakistan in an absence of stable democratic institutions never having developed. Meaning, in times of economic, social and political uncertainty, the military has historically responded most efficiently in alleviating situations since 1947. Whether one accepts the idea that the military creates a perpetual cycle of uncertainty within which to assume power, or the military responds to the shortcomings of civilian governments in the absence of democratic instiuttions (chicken & egg argument), either way, the military’s been relatively effective in handling crises in Pakistan in comparison to civlian regimes. So given the current enviornment of insecurity, people are weary of a hopeful promise for “long term” moves toward “democracy” that comes at the expense of insufficient assistance to their military who has a capacity to alleviate immediate security concerns.
I think democracy is the ultimate route to security for Pakistan, but despite Executive branch oversight and our “long term” commitment defined by only 5 years of funding, Pakistan’s concerns are understandable. Given a long history of cooperation, Pakistan is more used to US assistance through bilateral relations with a Republican government in DC (think General Zia/Raegan, General Musharraf/Bush, Ayub Khan/Eisenhower, Yahya/Nixon) and the Kerry Lugar bill is a staunch reverasal of our foreign policy with Islamabad. Perhaps finding value in previously crafted policies to Pakistan in combination with our current legislative proposals is an optimal solution to quelling the enahanced concern of our enhanced cooperation.
- A Case of Exploding Mangoes
- A Pakistan News
- Adobe Acrobat 9.0 Pro Extended
- Adobe Flash CS3 Professional
- Air Blue
- AutoCAD 2009
- Business Recorder
- Charlie Wilson's War
- CIA - The World Fact about Pakistan
- Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within
- Daily 1 World
- Daily Times
- Dawn
- Descent into Chaos: The United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia
- Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle with Militant Islam
- Ghost Wars
- Kashmir Observer
- Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan's Military Economy
- National Assembly of Pakistan
- Orwell Diaries
You are currently browsing the Pakistan weblog archives for October, 2009.
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